This Friday I’m sporting a shirt from GymJunkies.com. This site is dedicated to fitness information and packed full of how to videos, weight loss programs and strength training workouts. Want to look good for the summer? They just launched a free 30 day shred it program. Great stuff. Thanks, Vic! Stay up to date with Vic’s fitness tips on Twitter - @gymjunkies.
Llega más competencia al terreno de los navegadores para Windows Mobile con Mach5 Web for Mobile, que sigue la estela de Skyfire, utilizando un proxy para renderizar los datos en el servidor y mostrarlos en nuestro teléfono.
Esto le permite mostrar páginas tal y como lo haríamos en nuestro ordenador, así como ser compatible con tecnologías como Flash 10, AJAX, ActiveX,... De este modo funcionan páginas como Youtube o Google Maps sin ningún problema.
Mach5 for Web Mobile incorpora otras capacidades, entre las que encontramos la posibilidad de hacer zoom, de mostrar solo el texto para una mejor visualización, guardar imágenes o bloquear popups. Lo único malo es que, por ahora, se trata de una beta que caduca a mediados de este mes, y no se sabe si pasado este periodo será de pago o se continuará su desarrollo.
El sitio PCOnline acaba de publicar unas fotos que muestran a un posible sucesor del Nokia 5800 Xpressmusic. Con un diseño bastante similar, se puede ver un teléfono ligeramente distinto y con una pantalla más grande, quizá de unas 3,5 pulgadas.
Aunque puede tratarse de un montaje fotográfico, o de uno de esos móviles clonados tan abundantes en China, las fotos parecen bastante reales y es muy probable que pertenezcan a algún prototipo de Nokia. El diseño tiene una mejor apariencia que el del actual 5800 y, por ejemplo, el reborde frontal metalizado ofrece un aspecto de mayor calidad. Las fotos muestran el móvil en dos colores, negro y blanco, y aunque no es posible ver las características de la cámara, PCOnline comenta algo (que no termino de entender) sobre la posibilidad de que sea de 5 megapíxeles.
Repito que pudiera tratarse de un montaje o un simple prototipo anterior al 5800 o al N97. En cualquier caso, es muy probable que Nokia nos saque de dudas el próximo mes de septiembre durante el Nokia World que se celebrará en la ciudad alemana de Stuttgart. Más fotos tras el salto.
CloneCloud es un proyecto del equipo de investigación de Intel en Berkeley que aspira a clonar móviles en la nube (en servidores repartidos por Internet o en nuestro propio ordenador). ¿Su objetivo? Aumentar la potencia de cálculo de nuestros teléfonos móviles trasladando al terminal clonado las tareas más intensivas, siempre y cuando el tiempo empleado y la energía consumida merezcan el esfuerzo.
Con esto, los desarrolladores que opten por implementar CloneCloud en sus aplicaciones para móviles, podrían obsequiarnos con características y funciones que hasta el momento están limitadas a los ordenadores convencionales, ya sea por potencia de cálculo o por limitaciones en la cantidad de memoria o la autonomía de la batería.
Por ejemplo, según las pruebas realizadas por los desarrolladores de Intel, enviar al móvil-clon una imagen, ejecutar un proceso de reconocimiento facial y devolver la imagen al terminal físico, llevaría unos pocos segundos. La ejecución del algoritmo de reconocimiento facial (no confundir con detección facial) en el propio móvil, llevaría más de un minuto. Un minuto no parece mucho, pero al ser el proceso completamente automático y transparente, el ahorro por repetición podría ser bastante importante.
Otros escenarios posibles serían, por ejemplo: el envío de un archivo de audio con la grabación de una clase para que el móvil clonado se encargue de convertir la voz a texto, ejecutar pesadas aplicaciones de seguridad en entornos corporativos incluso con el terminal físico apagado y recibir una notificación al encenderlo, actuar como sistema de sincronización de datos con el ordenador, o incluso servir como copia de seguridad en caso de pérdida o robo del teléfono móvil
No todo es perfecto. Por el momento, la posibilidad de disfrutar de juegos más potentes y otras aplicaciones que necesiten procesamiento en tiempo real, estará vetada hasta que las latencias y velocidades de las redes móviles mejoren sustancialmente. La seguridad y privacidad de los datos almacenados en el móvil-clon también se están teniendo en cuenta, pero como todavía es una tecnología en fase embrionaria, el sistema no se ha desarrollado lo suficiente.
Por último, hasta ahora las investigaciones de CloneCloud se han centrado en terminales basados en Android, el sistema operativo de Google y compañía, pero si el desarrollo sigue adelante, la tecnología se podría trasladar al resto de sistemas operativos móviles, e incluso a dispositivos como las tabletas de Internet, tipo Nokia N810, y los casi extintos MID.
¿Quieres cambiar el aspecto de tu Sony Ericsson? Pues Sony Ericsson Theme Creator 4.0 te lo pone fácil, ya que permita crear temas para los teléfonos de este fabricante de una forma bastante sencilla. Evidentemente, no debemos esperar grandes posibilidades de personalización pero si el adaptarlos un poco a nuestro gusto.
En su apartado más básico nos permite seleccionar los colores que queramos usar para los diferentes aspectos del interfaz de usuario, así como definir los fondos de pantalla y el estilo de visualización. Pero si somos un poco más manitas podemos ir un paso más allá.
Mediante Flash Lite podemos hacer animaciones que vayan cambiando según la hora del día, según la batería que nos quede o crear salvapantallas. Sony Ericsson Theme Creator es gratuito y está de momento, solo disponible para Windows, aunque esperan tener pronto una versión también para Mac OS X.
Acabo de enterarme como se pueden cerrar aplicaciones de forma sencilla en el 5800. No se si debe a la última actualización de firmware, disponible desde hace poco, pero ahora sólo es necesario mostrar la lista de programas en ejecución con la tecla de menú, la del centro, y hacer una pulsación larga sobre el programa que queremos cerrar. En móviles Symbian con teclado basta con invocar el listado de aplicaciones, seleccionar una, y usar la tecla “c” para finalizarla.
Esta semana ha habido bastantes novedades para el primer S60 táctil. Aún no he tenido tiempo ni de leerlas todas, pero en mi lista de prioridades aparece la nueva versión de DOSBox que viene cargada de mejoras para el “tube”. A ver si hay suerte y deja instalar el Windows 95. Otro programa para probar es Nimbuzz, un agregador de mensajería instantánea y voz sobre ip que combina las redes sociales más conocidas, por ejemplo Facebook, MySpace, Skype, MSN o Google Talk. También con temática social, se ha actualizado Nokia Friend View al cincuentayocho cero cero. Una buena opción si tú y tus colegas sois aficionados al micro-blogging y queréis estar localizados en todo momento.
Hace tiempo leí en un foro dedicado a las tabletas Linux de Nokia a un usuario que se quejaba que los programadores de estos dispositivos no tenían en cuenta las necesidades de los usuarios. Un programador le respondió: “Si que nos ocupamos de las necesidades… de nuestras necesidades“.
Una de las cosas que sinceramente adoro del iPhone es que ha dado entrada a los programadores aficionados. Gente normal con ideas muy buenas que se traducen en un flujo constante de originalidad. Es cierto que esto conlleva a veces falta de calidad, precios ridículos o incluso programas de mal gusto, pero es el precio a pagar por ciertas joyas que surgen de vez en cuando. iDragon Ball Sports es uno de esos ejemplos de ideas frescas. La aplicación consiste en un juego en el que tendremos que emular a Son Gokū y su pandilla, recorriendo el mundo real para encontrar las famosas bolas de dragón. La idea no es realmente nueva, es un juego de geocaching, pero el enfoque me parece realmente fantástico.
Tal y como está la última temporada de Lost, otra aplicación que me encanta es Doomsday Terminal. El juego consiste en emular el trabajo de Desmond en la escotilla, y la puntuación de todos los jugadores se almacena en un servidor central. Por ahora parece que hay alguien California que aguantó durante una semana. Doomsday Terminal está dirigida a gente con inclinaciones un poco masoquistas, a los que les guste la tensión y el sufrimiento. Básicamente el perfil de los que seguimos la serie.
Apple está avisando a los programadores de iPhone de la necesidad de comprobar sus creaciones contra el nuevo firmware 3.0. A partir de ahora los tests previos a la admisión en la App Store se van a realizar con esta versión, y se van a rechazar aquellas aplicaciones que no sean compatibles. De hecho, para cuando la actualización llegue a los consumidores, todas las aplicaciones tendrán que ser compatibles con la misma o serán eliminadas de la tienda. Se comenta que esto va a suponer la actualización de muchos de los programas existentes. Por ejemplo, si el programa utiliza la clase “UIAlertView”, que muestra un dialogo “aceptar-cancelar”, posiblemente tenga que ser revisado por su autor.
En Windows Mobile también encontramos aplicaciones muy originales. Por ejemplo H1N1 Alert, que muestra en un mapa los casos de gripe porcina más cercanos a tu situación. Especial para hipocondríacos.
Aunque lo cierto es que en esta plataforma predominan las utilidades, muchas de ellas para mejorar el sistema. Persian Blue es una buena muestra en cuanto a las capacidades bluetooth. Entre las muchas funciones que ofrece destacan el envío y recepción de múltiples ficheros, dispone de una barra de progreso en las transferencias, la integración con el explorador de archivos o el poder trabajar con contactos y citas. Muy recomendable.
Otra buena utilidad es Google Translator, que nos deja acceder a la herramienta de traducción de textos de Google de forma más directa. También gratuita pero más compleja es ShortCad, un completo programa de diseño asistido que podemos llevar en el bolsillo. Trabaja con archivos DXF y funciona incluso en terminales con Windows Mobile 2003, por lo que puede servirnos para consultar planos o crear bocetos rápidos.
En Android parece que ya tenemos Cupcake, o al menos se asegura que llegará este mes de forma oficial a los usuarios del G1. Al igual que comentaba antes del iPhone, la actualización supone ciertos problemas de compatibilidad, por lo que las aplicaciones del Android Market tendrán que establecer claramente sobre que versión funcionan. El caso es que Android está, por su arquitectura de comprobación de APIs, bien preparado para este tema. Supongo que la medida es para prevenir la devolución de aplicaciones por usuarios que no tengan un sistema, o un móvil Android, compatible.
Una de las primeras aplicaciones que he visto para la que es necesario usar Cupcake es AppsDesktop, que básicamente sirve para replicar la apariencia del interfaz del iPhone.
Pero también en Android encontramos originalidad. Por ejemplo me ha gustado Joyity, un utilidad que no solo te permite jugar con diferentes juegos, también puedes crear y compartir tus propios juegos. Joyity se basa en la localización y es, en resumen, una plataforma de juegos de geocaching. El aprovechamiento que hace de las funciones del móvil y la posibilidad de que los usuarios puedan crear nuevos juegos son cualidades verdaderamente muy novedosas.
Recordemos que el Plan 5 horas para profesionales de Vodafone tiene una cuota mensual de 20 euros que permite llamar gratis a cualquier destino nacional durante las 5 horas consecutivas elegidas por el cliente. Las llamadas gratis tienen un límite de 1000 minutos/mes y el resto de horarios se tarifica a 15 céntimos/minuto (más 15 céntimos de establecimiento).
Las mejoras que se aplican a partir de hoy a los nuevos clientes como a los que ya tuvieran contratada esta tarifa es que el consumo mínimo mensual (adicional a la cuota) se reduce de 12 a 9 euros por línea y además, las 5 horas gratuitas ya no se tendrán que elegir solo entre tres franjas disponibles si no que cada empresa podrá elegir las 5 horas consecutivas en el horario que desee aunque ese horario tendrá que seguir siendo el mismo para toda la empresa.
Dentro de estas mejoras, además de las 5 horas gratis, Vodafone lanza por una cuota adicional de 9 euros (que no computará para el consumo mínimo) algunas opciones para completar el Plan 5 horas con una de las tres modalidades disponibles a los clientes que les interese:
Plan 5 horas y Tiempo Libre: Incluye llamadas gratis a cualquier destino nacional de lunes a viernes (entre las 20:00 y las 8 horas) y durante los fines de semana todo el día.
Plan 5 horas Fijo: Permite llamar gratis a fijos durante las 24 horas del día y por 5 euros más permitirá recibir las llamadas del fijo en móvil para ahorrarte las cuotas del mantenimiento del fijo con Telefónica.
Plan 5 horas Navegación: Incluye y la navegación por internet desde el propio móvil con tráfico ilimitado (aunque con la velocidad limitada a 128Kbps a partir de los 250 MB/mes) rebajando así el precio de su tarifa plana de internet en el móvil para empresas.
Vodafone lanza también un programa de cobertura para los desempleados profesionales que permitirá activar una tarifa sin consumo mínimo durante 6 meses y llamar por 15.9 céntimos/minuto a cualquier destino.
Vueling móvil no ha dado demasiado que hablar en el mundo de las OMVs, pero se descuelgan hoy con una promoción destinada a la captación de nuevos clientes, en la cual ofrecen su tarjeta SIM con un coste bastante reducido y regalan un vuelo con cada una de ellas.
Podremos adquirir una tarjeta SIM por 5 euros, viniendo esta con 20 euros en saldo. Además, si consumimos 15 euros al mes durante tres meses obtendremos un vuelo gratis de ida y vuelta a cualquier ciudad donde vuele esta aerolínea.
Para que se apliquen las ventajas de esta promoción es necesario introducir el código VLG0000XA al realizar la compra a través de su página web. La promoción finaliza el día 31 de este mes.
Una de las charlas más interesantes durante el Nokia Developer Summit de la semana pasada, fue la de Lee Williams, director ejecutivo de la Fundación Symbian. Su carrera profesional pasa por empresas como Be, creadora del sistema BeOS, o Palm, y anteriormente trabajó para Nokia en el importante desarrollo del interfaz S60.
Lee Williams es un buen orador y su “keynote” tuvo varios puntos bastante llamativos. Por ejemplo, resulta curioso escuchar en un evento organizado por Nokia, que la Fundación Symbian es una organización totalmente independiente. Lo dijo sin pestañear, y la verdad es que los pasos dados por la Fundación Symbian y Nokia hasta ahora demuestran este hecho. Si tenemos en cuenta que Samsung, con el Omnia HD, y Sony Ericsson, con el Idou, han optado por Symbian como sistema operativo, podemos deducir que por lo menos hay un cierto apoyo a toda la estrategia de código abierto.
Otro punto interesante del que habló Lee Williams fue una comparación entre las distintas plataformas móviles. No se trataba de rendimiento o precios, sino de comparar conceptos como el control de su evolución, número de pasos para que una nueva versión llegue al mercado, o de la comunidad y el apoyo existentes en torno a cada sistema operativo. El caso es que Symbian e iPhone empataban a puntos en dicha tabla, algo que el propio Williams nos explicó más tarde.
También se enfatizó mucho el papel que los desarrolladores cumplen en un Symbian de código abierto. Siguiendo la simbología del nuevo Symbian open source, Williams les dijo a los programadores que ellos eran ahora “un todopoderoso pato robot”, la apertura del sistema les coloca en una posición muy ventajosa. Además de la facilidad de trabajar sobre un sistema que puedes leer como funciona, la idea es la apertura total a las mejoras, cualquiera puede proponer cambios que ayuden a mejorar el sistema. Junto al código “puro y duro”, la Fundación tiene previsto ofrecer una serie de herramientas hasta ahora de uso interno, no solo para aplicaciones de terceros, también para fabricantes de dispositivos.
En resumen, la intervención de Lee Williams dejó muy claro que la Fundación Symbian no es solo una cortina de humo o un gesto. Están decididos a abrir el sistema operativo y convertirlo en la mejor plataforma móvil existente. La elección de la vía open source es casi un imperativo en la nueva filosofía Symbian: las APIs que no están abiertas, están obsoletas.
Después de su charla, tuvimos la oportunidad de entrevistar brevemente a Lee Williams y hacerle algunas preguntas.
XM: Symbian consiste en unas 14 millones de líneas de código y uno de los mayores inconvenientes de la plataforma es su dificultad a la hora de programar, ¿cree usted que la publicación del código ayudará a reducir la complejidad?
LW: Por supuesto. Esa es una de las grandes ventajas del open source, el feedback que se obtiene de la comunidad. La publicación del código de Symbian se va a producir en distintas fases y por paquetes con distinto contenido. Algunos de estos paquetes serán de interés para los terceros desarrolladores, otros paquetes serán más atractivos para las operadoras o los fabricantes de teléfonos. Nuestro objetivo es crear con la colaboración de todos, la mejor plataforma de software posible. Por otro lado Symbian va a seguir con su estrategia de varias opciones para los programadores. La inclusión de Open C, las bibliotecas QT, o Web Run Time es algo previsto en la evolución del sistema.
XM: ¿Quizá .Net en un futuro?
LW: Bueno, estamos abiertos a esa opción. Conocemos el trabajo de Red Five Labs, todo dependerá de que modelo de licencia y en que precios estén ellos pensando.
XM: En la comparativa sobre plataformas móviles que ha realizado en su keynote, Symbian e iPhone destacan sobre RIM, Windows Mobile o Android, pero están igualados a puntos. ¿Que significa esto?
LW: Si, es cierto, he valorado los atributos de las distintas plataformas en temas que interesan a los desarrolladores o fabricantes y considero que Apple y Symbian se encuentran en general al mismo nivel. Pero hay una diferencia fundamental, uno es un sistema cerrado y el otro abierto. El futuro es, sin duda, de las plataformas abiertas.
XM: Siguiendo con el tema Apple-Symbian, ¿que prefiere: miles o cientos de aplicaciones?
LW: Personalmente me gustaría que Symbian tuviese lo mejor de los dos mundos. No se trata de tener muchas aplicaciones sino de que existan muchas y de buena calidad. Nuestra misión es ofrecer la base para que otros puedan crear, por lo que el tiempo nos dirá que modelo es el que evoluciona sobre Symbian.
XM: Tener acceso al código fuente puede parecer algo superfluo o inútil para el usuario normal. ¿Symbian se va a centrar solo en los programadores?
LW: No vamos a olvidarnos del usuario normal. La publicación del código de Symbian y la creación de una comunidad de desarrollo es un aspecto más técnico, pero también queremos que el usuario entienda las posibilidades que le ofrece un dispositivo con Symbian. Es una idea que vamos a potenciar.
XM: Usted publicó las fotos y la información de Symbian sobre un chip Intel Atom, ¿tendremos pronto ordenadores funcionando con Symbian?
LW: En realidad se trata sólo de una prueba de concepto, aún queda mucho trabajo por hacer al respecto. La idea era demostrar la versatilidad del sistema. Si un fabricante de netbooks quiere hacer un ordenador con Symbian, es posible hacerlo, y sus desarrollos contribuyen al mismo tiempo a la comunidad.
XM: ¿Cual es su móvil Symbian favorito? ¿Y su programa favorito?
LW: Ahora mismo estoy usando el N97, que es muy buen dispositivo. También estoy muy contento con el estupendo trabajo de optimización que se ha hecho con el 5800 XpressMusic. En cuanto a software, Gravity, conozco a su autor y es uno de los programas mejor realizados para Symbian.
Todo un culebrón el que se ha montado esta semana en referencia a los operadores móviles, las nuevas regulaciones, asociaciones de consumidores y posibles nuevas tasas a las telecos.
Tras reducir las tarifas en roaming por Europa, La Comisión Europea ha lanzado una nueva ofensiva para rebajar el precio de las llamadas de móvil instando a los reguladores nacionales (la CMT en el caso de España) a rebajar las tarifas de interconexión hasta alcanzar a finales de 2012 los 2 céntimos/minuto ajustándose así al coste real.
La tasa de terminación móvil en España se encuentra actualmente en 7.94 céntimos (algo por debajo de la media comunitaria de 8.55 céntimos) y pretende rebajarse para favorecer la competencia aunque los operadores afirman que pone en riesgo su capacidad de invertir en redes de nueva generación y desarrollar servicios que respondan a las demandas de los consumidores.
No obstante, de momento esta ofensiva se trata únicamente de una recomendación que los reguladores nacionales deberán “tener muy en cuenta” pero de la que podrán apartarse si lo justifican ya que las tasas de terminación móvil ya han bajado un 40% en los últimos tres años en toda la UE y caerán otro 40% en los tres próximos pero sin llegar a la rebaja propuesta del 65% para 2012.
Por otro lado, las telecos españolas amenazan con subir sus tarifas si finalmente se les aplica la nueva tasa para financiar la supresión de publicidad en TVE mientras que FACUA pide al Gobierno que regule el sector para acabar con estas amenazas imponiendo un precio máximo a los operadores.
Parece que se estén pasando la pelota de unos a otros y curiosamente se supone que todos los hacen para favorecer al usuario. ¿Será verdad que los notaremos en nuestras facturas?
When Ronald Reagan moved into the White House, total U.S. debt equaled 168% of GDP. The next 27 years took the total to 370%; it was heralded as a triumph of the Anglo-Saxon free enterprise system, but it left people with an additional $27 trillion of debt. And now, the economic system that created so many heavy balls and such long chains is in the recovery room – looked after by quacks and prayed for by most of the world.
You can explain the model in a few simple sentences: Encourage people to spend. When they run out of money, encourage them to borrow. When they tire of borrowing and spending, lend them more at lower rates.
As a way for people to build wealth, this economic model of the Bubble Period was as ineffective as a bad banker. It was a 'have your cake and eat it too' school of financial success with an obvious flaw. People noticed it when the correction began. They went to their cupboards and found there was nothing there. Homeowners – who had borrowed heavily against their houses – found their equity had disappeared. Capitalists found they had no capital. Workers lost their work.
And this year, governments' tax receipts are collapsing too. In the United States, they're down 14% in the first half of this fiscal year. Expenses, on the other hand, are exploding. This leads to a question: governments must borrow on a Herculean scale – but from whom? The United States is expected to float a record $2 trillion in I.O.Us. for 2009 – about 15% of GDP. If the downturn persists, as it has in Japan, we could see the U.S. national debt rise to Japanese levels – close to 200% of GDP.
In London, the numbers are smaller, but the math is the similar. The government has projected $175 billion deficits over the next two years. But this might be just the beginning. If deficits continue at this rate, Britain too could find itself back in the 1950s' – after two world wars, with public debt at two times GDP.
What justifies such sacrifices? In time of war, citizens collect scrap iron…sell their jewelry…and buy bonds – anything to help pay for bullets and keep the Huns East of the Rhine. But what now? People clamp even bigger balls and longer chains on themselves…and for what? Taking flowers to the recovery room, they look in on the bubble model as though on a weary friend. "He supported us all," says an anxious relative… "We must do all we can to save him."
"Pull the plug," is our advice.
Of course, when he was in his prime the bubble was fun – laughing, singing, spending…a grasshopper on stilts! And there were all those friendly ants in Asia ready to lend him money. At the peak, the U.S.A. had net borrowing of some $2 billion per day (trade deficit/365).
But now, take America's anticipated budget deficit and divide it by 365. You get a figure of nearly $6 billion per day. Even at his peak, the old bug didn't bring in that kind of money. And now, the foreigners are in recession too. They've got their own aches and pains to cure. So, how will the United States finance the biggest deficit of all time? How has Japan done it?
Japan's economy has been locked up for 19 long years. It financed its confinement itself – drawing on the savings of a remarkably long-suffering population. Stimulus packages came and went. On average, they cost about 3% of GDP per year. The biggest came in 1998 – with a price of 6% of GDP. Financing this house arrest was easy – Japan began the period with a savings rate of 14% of GDP.
America, on the other hand, began with a savings rate of zero. More recently, the savings rate has been reported as high as 5% – as middle-aged squirrels desperately hide a few nuts for a long winter retirement. But the gods can add it up. Even if every dollar of U.S. savings is tossed down the public hole, it will still be two thirds empty.
Anticipating the problem, the Fed has already leapt into the hole itself. It offers to buy the government's bonds itself. Of course, the Fed has no real money. It must 'create' money to make the purchase. It's the latest miracle treatment, say the quacks in charge. If the Fed creates enough new money, it will offset the losses caused by the downturn. Then, happy days will be here again. The whole world seems to believe it. Stocks are rising. Ben Bernanke, this week, said the U.S. economy would recover before Christmas. The convalescence may be long, he continued, with his vision apparently restored; but it will be steady.
How the gods must howl! "In the Bubble Epoque people tried to get something for nothing… Imagine, they thought they could get rich by borrowing money and spending it. Have you ever heard of something so ridiculous? Ha ha! Now, they think they can get rich by spending money that doesn't even exist."
"But that's not the half of it," one of them is sure to notice. "They're digging themselves deeper into debt – trying to revive the very oaf who pushed them down in the hole in the first place. Ha ha. Ha ha."
"Gold Isn't Going To $2,000 An Ounce" is both the headline and the announcement of Jeff Clark at CaseyResearch.com, a conclusion he apparently reached after he "decided to take a fresh look at calculations that could be used to appraise gold's upside potential."
Confirming rumors that I am "always disagreeable," I am absolutely sure that gold will soar in price, as in To The Freaking Moon (TTFM), as a result of the fiscal and monetary malfeasance as we see today, as that is what has ALWAYS happened in the last 4,500 years of governments acting like grubby, corrupt morons, particularly when using a fiat currency, which always expands too, too much and for too, too long.
Naturally, being paranoid and argumentative, I figure that Mr. Clark is trying to pick a fight with me, just like all the other people in the world who are out to get me, each more jealous than the last, seething with their poisonous, hate-filled envy because I am smart enough to buy gold and they are stupid because they are not, even though I tell them all the time, "Just buy gold when your government is acting so stupidly, and then you will be acting smart, stupid!"
But, alas, they don't. (And just between you and me, that's how I know that they are stupid! Hahaha!)
In response to this challenge, I shout to my secretary, "Sarah, get Jeff Clark on the phone immediately, damn it!"
While I wait and fume for her to make the call, I read further into the essay, only to discover to my horror that he was NOT trying to argue with me! Oops!
Instantly, I shout out, "Sarah! Forget about making the call!" which was met with complete silence instead of her usual response of, "Okay" with the undertone of surliness and contempt which I figure she obviously uses to disguise the fact that she is Hot For The Mogambo (HFTM).
It was only then – Silly me! Hahaha! The joke's on me! – that I remembered that I no longer had a secretary since she, too, quit, storming out of here screaming about what a creep I am and threatening to sue me and the company for her anguish.
Anyway, it turns out that the reason for the title "Gold Isn't Going To $2,000 An Ounce" is that it will be higher than that, and he calculates a possible $6,214 per ounce price for gold if it replicates "Gold's Percentage Rise in the Last Bull Market."
When comparing "U.S. Gold Holdings to Money Supply," he calculates gold selling for $5,468.80 per ounce, and the venerable Gold/Dow Ratio yields $4,000/oz.
It gets interesting when he looks at "All the Money in the World vs. Gold Reserves," where we learn the novel factoid that "Total central banks reserves (including gold holdings) = $4.8 trillion," which includes not only a lot of each other's fiat money, but 929.6 million ounces of gold, which is the "total gold reserves held by all official institutions that issue currency."
When dividing one into the other, "gold would be $5,246 per ounce."
Then it starts getting weird, as when he compares "U.S. Gold Holdings to U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit," based on "the cumulative trade deficit of $9.13 trillion (up from $6 trillion since June '07!)" compared to the entire U.S. gold holdings of 286.9 million ounces, "the corresponding price of gold would be $31,822 per ounce."
Since "Official U.S. government liabilities now ring in at an incredible $55.2 trillion," to pay it off right now "would require a $192,401 gold price."
In short, by not doing any real work whatsoever other than to mindlessly quote Jeff Clark's calculations, I have fulfilled my mission to give you one more set of reasons to buy gold as protection against the sheer tonnage of stupidity of the government and the Federal Reserve, and to give myself a new set of reasons to laugh at you and call you disrespectful names if you don't buy gold after being told about it, which is the part that I like best! Hahahaha!
The results of the government's bank stress tests were released yesterday (Thursday), and the U.S. Federal Reserve has directed 10 banks to raise an aggregate $70 billion-plus in capital.
Banks that require funding will have 30 days to present a capital-raising strategy to regulators and then six months to implement it.
It is unlikely that any of the banks will require any additional taxpayer money.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), MetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET), American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK), BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT), Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) are in the clear in terms of having adequate capital cushioning.
The following banks will be required to raise these assigned amounts of capital:
The banks will have until June 8 to develop a plan to raise the required capital and until Nov. 9 to implement it. They may choose to raise the money in a variety of ways. They may sell assets, court private investment or convert the government's existing preferred shares into common stock.
Citigroup has already announced plans to convert a portion of the government's $45 billion stake into common stock, a move that will give the federal government a 36% stake in the company. Other regional banks – such as Fifth Third Bank or Regions Financial – could be forced to take similar actions, but are loath to do so, as most of the moves would be dilutive to existing shareholders.
Morgan Stanley plans to close its capital gap by selling assets or stock to private investors, a person briefed on the plan told The New York Times. And Wells Fargo said late yesterday that it plans to sell $6 billion in new common stock in an effort to raise required capital.
While Bank of America has said it doesn't agree with the Fed's conclusions, the bank yesterday outlined its strategy to accommodate the government's demands. BofA is exploring the sale of such business units as its First Republic private-banking unit and asset manager Columbia Management, TheWall Street Journal reported.
The sale of those businesses could raise a combined $4 billion, David Hendler of CreditSights Inc. told The Journal. BofA could also get about $8 billion for its partial stake in China Construction Bank Corp.
Beyond that BofA would have the options of converting the government's existing $45 billion investment, or $33 billion in private preferred shares, into common stock.
The Fed wants bank-holding companies to achieve a Tier 1 risk-based ratio of at least 6%, and a Tier 1 Common risk-based ratio of at least 4% by the end of 2010. The goal is to get banks to the point where they are stable enough that they can borrow from private investors without a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) guarantee, people familiar with the matter told BloombergNews.
If the banks fail to meet capital requirements, the government will step in to provide the necessary funds. However, it's unlikely that any more taxpayer money will be needed, as about $110 billion of the original $700 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funding remains.
“I think this will be a confidence-instilling announcement,” Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair told a Senate panel Wednesday. “There will be additional needs for capital buffers for some institutions, but I think there will be mechanisms to do that within the next six months.”
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in an interview with PBS television's "The Charlie Rose Show" that all of the institutions tested already have "significant cushions" of capital and that Americans have every reason to be confident going forward.
"The results will be, on balance, reassuring," Geithner said.
But some analysts are skeptical about what the bank stress tests actually achieved, or if their standards of evaluation were even valid in the first place. After all, the tests have occupied resources from both the federal government and the private sector for months, and have increased stock market volatility.
Also, many bank employees, and even Elizabeth Warren, who chairs the Congressional Oversight Panel for TARP, have expressed concern that the tests weren't stringent enough.
In the Fed's most pessimistic economic forecast, for example, the government projects the unemployment rate will climb to 10.3% in 2010. But unemployment already hit 8.5% in March and many economists are predicting that it rose to 8.9% in April. If that's the case, it's not hard to imagine the national jobless rate reaching double digits by the end of the year.
"The stress tests will make a terrific contribution if they are tough and transparent," Warren said. "If they are not, they will be useless."
Still, despite the test's alleged failings, there is a hope that with more transparency and a greater buffer of equity, investor confidence will be restored.
"This is sending a message that the banks need more capital, but their losses are manageable and the system itself is solvent," Kevin Fitzsimmons, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill told The Times. "Whether it sticks is something else."
Wall Street is constantly hung up on finding the next giant economy. Is China going to continue to grow as a superpower? What about India?
The suits on the Street ask themselves these questions every day. They don't realize that these superpowers aren't the only places you can make big money.
Indonesia has the world's fourth largest population, over 200 million people, but it ranks no. 16 in GDP purchasing power. Poverty and disease plague this sleeping giant. That's why the median age of the country is just 28 years old.
The country has made some progress of late through the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Elected in 2004, Yudhoyono was an already important and popular figure in Indonesia after a few stints in the first couple cabinets of the fairly new democracy. He has the rank of General and is a very influential military leader worldwide.
He continues to stay popular and will, in all probability, get reelected later this year. Yudhoyono is not only a military-focused politician, he's also an economic visionary in a country that desperately needs that kind of vision.
In just his first term, he's already signed an important trade agreement with Japan, opening his country's enormous population to the world's second largest economy.
Barack Obama recently invited Yudhoyono to the White House to discuss the U.S.'s role in helping developing countries during this economic recession. The two met again a few weeks later at the G-20, which Indonesia recently joined.
All of this prestige helped Yudhoyono make Time's 100 Most Influential Persons list this year. But it's also helped segments of Indonesia's population obtain some new G-20 benefits.
Even with all of the international help, Indonesia may not ever become a superpower. But the country does provide unique opportunities…if you know where to look.
The Growth Story of the Century
One of the most exciting growth industries in the Far East is Internet service providers. According to InternetWorldStats.com, 73.8% of Japanese and 76.1% of South Koreans are online. Even about one in every four Chinese citizens now has Internet access…
Indonesia is trailing in the region with just 10.5% of its population online. Here's our growth opportunity! In 2000, only two million Indonesians had the Internet. That number is set to reach 25 million this year.
But this growing ISP industry is only part of the story…
While Indonesia continues to struggle with some basic luxuries that the Western world takes for granted — such as cable television and wireless Internet access — its citizens do have cell phones. In fact, around 58% of the population already has a cell phone subscription — that's over 130 million subscriptions.
Even with so many current subscribers, growth hasn't slowed at all. The mobile phone industry is still growing at a 36% clip annually.
The reason I bring these two industries up together is because of a unique opportunity. I found a company with a 46% market share of both the broadband Internet and the cellular industries. That's the top spot. This is like finding Ma Bell at the turn of the 20th century — minus the anti-trust issues.
You see, this company's largest investor is the Indonesian government. It's a rock solid company that I'll be recommending early next week to my Lifetime Income Report readers.
Euphoria managed to out-run swine flu last week as the epidemic-du-jour, with "consumer" confidence jumping and the big bank stocks nudging up. The H1N1 virus fizzled for now, at least in terms of kill ratio, though we're warned it might boomerang in the fall with a vengeance. No one was surprised to see Chrysler roll over like a possum on a county highway, but the memory of their muscle cars will linger on like a California surfing song. Here in the northeast, where Sundays are not spent at the NASCAR oval, the spring foliage reached the tenderly explosive stage and it was hard to feel bad about anything.
For now, the "bottom" is in — that is, the bottom of this society's ability to process reality. It may continue for a month of so, even after the "stress test" for banks is finally let out of the massage parlor with a "happy ending." But events are underway that are beyond the command of personalities. We're done "doing business" in all the ways that we've been used to, but we just can't get with the new program. Let's count the ways:
1) The revolving credit economy is over. It's over because we can't increase energy inputs to the system, which is one way of saying "peak oil." Of course hardly anybody believes this right now because the price of oil crashed nine months ago, along with global manufacturing and trade. But nothing has changed on the peak oil scene — except perhaps that ever more new oil projects have been cancelled for lack of financing, which will boomerang on us (even if swine flu doesn't) in the form of much lower future oil production. In any case, the credit fiesta is over, and the "consumer" economy with it, because industrial growth as we have known it is over. It's over globally, too, though all regions of the world will not experience its demise the same way at the same rate.
The Asian nations may swap things around a while longer but China is basically screwed. They have less oil left than we have (which is saying, not much at all) and they won't corner the rest of the global oil market without starting World War Three. Meanwhile, they're running out of water and food. Good luck becoming the next global hegemon. Oh, and Japan imports 90 percent of its energy; India over 80 percent. Fuggeddabowdit.
Credit will not vanish everywhere overnight — even in the USA — because it is not distributed equally everywhere. But it will vanish in layers, and here in the USA a very broad layer of the lower and middle classes are now losing their access to it in one way or another — personally, in small business — and they will never get it back. Anyone who intends to thrive in the years just ahead had better plan on doing it on the basis of accounts receivable — and what they receive might not even necessarily come in the form of US dollars. It may come in the form of gold or silver or in the promise of reciprocal services rendered.
This has enormous implications for two of the items in which our credit-dispensing operations are most deeply vested: houses and cars. Unfortunately, these are exactly the things that economic life has been based on for decades in our nation, which leads to the next categories:
2) The suburban living arrangement is over, along with all its accessories and furnishings. Taken as "all of a piece," the suburban expansion was one sixty-year-long orgasm of hypertrophy. We did it because we could. We won a world war and threw a party. We had lots of cheap land and cheap oil. It made lots of people lots of money and all its usufructs have become embedded in our national identity to the dangerous degree that the loss of them will provoke a kind of national psychotic breakdown. In fact, it already has. The completely unrealistic expectation that we can resume this way of life is proof of it.
The immediate problem is that we can't build anymore of it. The next problem will be the failure of the stuff that already exists. The first stage of that is now palpable in the mortgage foreclosure fiasco and, just beginning now, the tanking of malls, strip centers, office parks and other commercial property investments. The latter will accelerate and become visible very quickly as retail tenants bug out and weeds start growing where the Chryslers and Pontiacs once parked. The next stage, which involves large demographic shifts in how we inhabit the landscape, has not quite gotten underway.
3) The Happy Motoring fiesta is over. You'd think that with Chrysler crawling into the bankruptcy court, and GM just weeks away from the same terminal ceremony, the news media would begin to suspect that the foundation of everyday life in this country was cracking. Instead, all we hear is blather about "market share" shifting to Toyota. News flash: not only will we make fewer automobiles in the USA, but Americans will buy far fewer cars made anywhere. We'll keep the current fleet moving a while longer, but when it's too beat to repair, we won't be changing it out for a new fleet — despite all the fantasies about hybrids, plug-and-drive electrics, and so on. The masses will be too broke to buy these things. What's more, they will be very resentful of the shrinking economic "elite" who can afford them. And, anyway, our roads and highways are destined to fall apart very quickly because there is no way we can sustain the necessary rate of normal maintenance. Meanwhile, we remain completely un-serious about public transit — even about fixing the vestiges that still exist. The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years.
4) Our food production system is approaching crisis. There's no way we can continue the petro-agriculture system of farming and the Cheez Doodle and Pepsi Cola diet that it services. The public is absolutely zombified in the face of this problem — perhaps a result of the diet itself. President Obama and Ag Secretary Vilsack have not given a hint that they understand the gravity of the situation. It is probably one of those unfortunate events of history that can only impress a society in the form of a crisis. It also happens to be one of the few problems we face that public policy could affect sharply and broadly — if we underwrote the reactivation of smaller, local farm operations instead of shoveling money to giant "agribusiness" (or Citibank -NYSE:C-, or Goldman Sachs -NYSE:GS-, or AIG…). I maintain that this may be the year that the crisis gets our attention, because capital is suddenly harder to get than fossil-fuel-based fertilizer.
All these epochal discontinuities present themselves, for the moment, as a season of muted "hope" and general apathy. The days are suddenly mild. We've resumed old and happy habits of grilling meat outdoors and motoring to those remaining places that were not blanketed with franchised food huts and discount malls. We have a new, charming president with an appealing family. Newly-minted dollars are flowing to the "shovel-ready." The new bad news is less bad than the old bad news (or seems to be). And the year just past has been such a bummer that our hard-wired human nature tells us that good things must be just around the corner.
Personally, I think a lot of good things await us, but not the ones we're expecting — not a return to buying slurpees on credit cards. It will be very salutary to leave behind the junk empire we've accumulated and move into an epoch of quality and purpose. For the moment, though, our hopes reside elsewhere.
Profit taking was the name of the game during Thursday trading on the Canadian Markets. For the tale of the tape, the TSX Exchange gave back 1.74%, while the TSX Gold Index lost 0.60% and the TSX Venture Exchange, Canada's largest junior exploration bourse, kept the drive alive by adding 0.50% with the advancers edging out the decliners by a 454 to 424 margin on 193 million shares traded.
Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) saw its first-quarter profit rise by 27 percent to $290.9 million or $0.40 per share from $229.5 million or $0.32 per share in the same period a year earlier. Gold production rang in at 616,500 ounces marking an 18 percent increase. The major expects to produce about 2.3 million ounces of gold this year at costs of $365 to $400 per ounce. Goldcorp ended the day up C$0.87 at C$36.34.
Lundin Mining posted a first quarter loss of $8.6 million or $0.02 per share with operating earnings plunging to $38.2 million from $182.9 million in the first quarter of 2008. Lower metal prices resulted in a 60 percent drop in sales to $123.4 million. Lundin ended the day down C$0.18 at C$2.57.
Great Panther Resources is reporting some nice numbers along the Recompensa vein at its Topia mine in Mexico. Channel sampling has indicated that 133 metres of strike length averages 16.87 grams gold per tonne, 175 grams silver per tonne, 3.8 per cent lead, and 3.17 per cent zinc across an average width of 0.24 metres. Great Panther ended the session at C$0.49 for a C$0.025 gain.
After posting stellar gains, taking a little money off the table is probably a prudent move. With the job numbers for the United States due out, it could be an interesting session on Friday. We shall see.
The base metals were mixed on Thursday. Copper flirted with the $2.20 mark in the late pre-dawn hours, but then fell off through the day, finishing at its intraday low of $2.1135/lb., down nearly 6 cents.
Nickel pushed above $6 in the pre-dawn hours and then again at mid-morning, before backing off a bit to close at $5.8423/lb., up more than 9 cents. Zinc peaked at 73 cents but then hit the skids, ending at $0.695/lb., down a penny and a half. Aluminum was modestly lower, shedding just over a third of a cent, to $0.6889/lb., while lead moved slightly higher, adding three-quarters of a cent, to $0.6532/lb.
Copper headlined a day of mixed results by pulling back from a three-week high of $2.217, as traders decided that was a lofty enough level to take some profits ahead of the release of the bank stress tests and today's jobless numbers out of Washington.
The industrial metals were also not helped by equities, as the S&P 500 slid 1.3% on the day.
“The stock market is cooling off now and that's taking its toll on copper," said Donald Selkin, the chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York. "Commodities have been moving in lock-step with stocks on the theme of economic expansion."
On the supply front, though, copper turned around and resumed its downtrend, giving back all of Wednesday's gains and then some. Inventories monitored by the LME plummeted by 8,250 metric tons, to 393,900 tons.
Joel Crane, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) in New York, is skeptical about the recent rally. "People have been encouraged by some of the economic reports, but it still isn't convincing me that there's any improvement in the fundamentals," Crane said. "The reports have showed that things aren't as bad as people expected, but the economy is still weak."
But Vale CEO Roger Agnelli is convinced that the turnaround is for real.
"The first quarter was the bottom in terms of all types of problems we could face right now," Agnelli said during comments about the company's first quarter results.
In the energy market on Thursday, crude for June delivery continued to rise, closing at $56.71/barrel, up 37 cents. June reformulated gasoline added 3.75 cents, to $1.6655/gallon.
It was an up and down day in the energy sector, as traders initially drove crude as high as $58.57/barrel on economic optimism, but then turned nervous and watched as it gave up most of the day's gains.
The jobless claims report contributed to the early euphoria, along with better-than-expected April same-store sales from retailers and word from the Fed that large financial institutions undergoing stress tests will be granted a 30-day period to develop plans for how they will raise any new required capital.
But investors in the end could not ignore burgeoning stockpiles, as analysts continue to see the recent rally as getting rather frothy in light of few signs that demand is going to be picking up anytime soon.
In the currency market, the dollar prolonged its slide against the euro. Late Thursday, the euro was trading at $1.3403 vs. $1.3341 on Wednesday.
The common currency got a boost, as MarketWatch.com wrote, "after the European Central Bank announced minimal actions that would hurt the region’s shared currency while stabilizing the region’s financial markets and economy.
"The European Central Bank cut borrowing costs and said it would buy up to 60 billion euros ($80 billion) in covered bonds, a security popular in Europe and backed by mortgages or public-sector loans …
"As ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet discussed details of the plan's size and timing, traders became more comfortable with the notion it was a targeted move and would not be immediate, relieving fears that it was similar to quantitative easing maneuvers that are generally corrosive to a currency."
The euro's gains were capped, though, after the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell 34,000 to 601,000 in the week ending May 2. That's an awful number, but the lowest level since January.
At the same time, continuing claims reached a new record high, adding 56,000 to reach 6.35 million in the week ended April 25. Continuing claims are a broad indicator of the difficulties of current job searching. Now, today, come April's unemployment numbers, with most analysts expecting a slowing.
Consumer Credit Falls to Record Low in March; GM Burns Through $10.2 Billion in First Quarter; Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Soar to 11-Year High; Retailers Report Better-Than-Expected Sales in April; FBI Will Add More Agents for White-Collar Crime; Boeing Loses Dream Deal
Consumer credit in the United States fell by a record $11.1 billion in March after the jobless rate reached its highest level in a quarter century and banks made it harder to get loans in an effort to firm up their balance sheets. Consumer credit fell by $2.55 trillion, almost three times more than forecast and the most since records began in 1943, according to a Federal Reserve report released yesterday (Thursday) in Washington. "When you have record job losses, you have to expect record declines in spending and economic activity in general," Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research Corp. in New York told Bloomberg.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) said it burned through $10.2 billion in the first quarter as it tapped into federal bailout funds to survive a sharp decline in global sales that overwhelmed its cost-cutting efforts. Revenue dropped by almost half to $22.4 billion as the company cut production by about 900,000 vehicles and worked to run down costly inventories in the United States and Europe. Chief Financial Officer Ray Young said there was evidence consumers were scared away from GM cars and trucks because of concern the automaker was headed for bankruptcy, Reuters reported.
Delinquencies on commercial mortgages in the U.S. jumped to the highest levels in over 11 years in April as scarce credit made it difficult for landlords to refinance loans, Bloomberg reported, citing a report from property research firm Trepp LLC. About 2.45% of loans are now 30 days or more behind in payments, more than five times the year-ago number said the report. "It's about as bad as it's ever been," said Thomas Fink, a Trepp senior vice president. "I don't think we're done yet. Where it's going to top out, I don't know, but we're not done."
Nearly two-thirds of U.S. retailers posted better- than-expected monthly sales results for a second straight month in April, giving fresh evidence that consumer spending is warming up. Most retailers reported April sales at stores open at least a year that topped Wall Street estimates and a handful said their first-quarter results, which start landing next week, will be better than expected. “Overall, you are seeing some signs of a return to discretionary purchases throughout different areas of retail,” Barclays Capital PLC (NYSE: BCS) analyst Robert Drbul told Reuters.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) lost a deal for 25 of its 787 Dreamliners, the biggest order cancellation yet for the plane, meaning the giant jetmaker now has lost one more contract this year than it has won. The scrapped deal, valued at about $4.44 billion, takes Boeing's cancellations in the first four months to 59, versus 58 purchases, according to data published today on the Chicago-based company's Web site, Bloomberg reported. Airbus SAS (NYSE: SPR) said earlier it has 11 net orders after signing 30 agreements and losing 19. The 787 remains Boeing's best-selling new plane ever, with 861 contracts remaining. The jet, built mostly of composites, has suffered four delays because of defects, parts shortages and redesigns and is due to fly by the end of next month before entering service in the first quarter of 2010.
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